HBsAg loss in a New Zealand community study with 28-year follow-up: rates, predictors and long-term outcomes

2016 Hepatology International In press;

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HBsAg seroclearance is the most desired endpoint in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) but occurs uncommonly. Recent studies have shown baseline HBsAg levels to be predictive of HBsAg loss up to 10 years. We report the 28-year rates of HBsAg loss and outcomes in the Kawerau study cohort from New Zealand, and assess the predictive value of baseline HBsAg levels to predict long-term HBsAg loss. METHODS: The 1984 Kawerau community study identified 572 CHB patients, followed up for 28 years (41 % HBeAg-positive, median age 17 years, range 1-71 years). In 2012, surviving individuals attended a local clinic for an interview, blood tests and transient elastography. RESULTS: 384/218 (74 %) surviving individuals attended the clinic in 2012. Spontaneous HBsAg loss occurred in 145 (33 %) after 12,702 person-years of follow-up (1.14 per 100 person-years). Liver stiffness measurements were significantly lower if HBsAg loss occurred 50 years (mean 11.6 kPa), p = 0.0002. No HCC occurred following HBsAg loss (median follow-up 72 months). Predictors of HBsAg loss were older age and lower baseline HBsAg level (HR for HBsAg loss at 28 years 2.7 (95 % CI 1.7-4.2), 6.7 (95 % CI 3.9-11.4) and 9.4 (95 % CI 5.2-16.9), respectively, for HBsAg 1000-9999, 100-999 and 10,000 IU/mL at baseline, (p

Pubmed : 26957439